The John Batchelor Show

DALLAS THE DOG MONITORS COCKATOO SIEGE DURING HEATWAVE Colleague Jeremy Zakis. During a severe heatwave in New South Wales where temperatures reached 115°F (43°C), Dallas the dog has been vigilantly monitoring a flock of destructive cockatoos from his porch. While intelligent birds like magpies have retreated to the shade or are sharing Dallas's water bowl to survive the heat, the cockatoos remain active and destructive, tearing at pine cones and eyeing the neighbor's roof, which they damaged the previous year. The cockatoos are able to withstand the extreme temperatures better than other wildlife because they have located a water so...

BAZBALL DECLARED DEAD AFTER AUSTRALIA'S ASHES VICTORY Colleague Jeremy Zakis. Australia'sdecisive 4-1 victory in the Ashes series is viewed as a failure of England's "Bazball" strategy, which Zakis declares "dead" for test cricket. The strategy, reliant on brute force and psychological warfare to score quickly, ultimately backfired by exhausting the English players over the duration of the five-day matches. The Australian team successfully "outfoxed" England by utilizing technical bowling expertise—varying pace and using sliders—rather than engaging in a contest of pure speed. While England boasted of hitting "sixes" (home runs) prior to the series, Australia's disciplined field placement and...

SNAKE CATCHER SURVIVES EASTERN BROWN BITE Colleague Jeremy Zakis. The risks of the Australiansummer are highlighted by the ironic near-death experience of Michaela, a professional snake catcher who was bitten by a deadly Eastern Brown snake while off-duty and barefoot in her own garden. Although her organs began to shut down from the venom, she received antivenom within the crucial "golden hour" and is expected to survive and return to work. This incident underscores the "macho" culture among snake catchers, who often wear flip-flops and shorts as a "badge of honor," believing their understanding of the environment is sufficient...

CYCLONE KOJI STRIKES QUEENSLAND AS BUSHFIRES RAGE ELSEWHERE Colleague Jeremy Zakis. Jeremy Zakis reports that Cyclone Koji, described as a "monster" system with winds reaching 90 to 100 miles per hour, struck the Queensland coast near Townsville. Fortunately, the cyclone's epicenter made landfall south of the major population centers, resulting in damage primarily restricted to uprooted trees and localized flooding rather than widespread structural destruction. As the system moved inland, it depowered into an "ex-cyclone" bringing heavy rain to a region defined by volcanic rock and sharp cliffs rather than sandy beaches. Simultaneously, other parts of the continent, specifically Victoria and Western...

NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION AND ECONOMIC ISOLATION AS DETERRENCE Colleagues James Fanell and Bradley Thayer. To deter immediate Chinese aggression, Fanell advocates for "war fighting proliferation," suggesting the US should support nuclear capabilities for allies like Japan and South Korea because conventional US forces cannot be rebuilt fast enough. Thayer argues for total economic decoupling, urging Washington to cut off trade to exploit Xi Jinping's domestic weaknesses. They propose "political warfare" to isolate the regime diplomatically, treating the CCPas a pariah to encourage internal dissent. They emphasize that the goal is not invasion, but power politics and credible deterrence to change Beijing's...

ADMITTING STRATEGIC FAILURE AND THE NEED FOR TEAM B Colleagues James Fanell and Bradley Thayer. Fanell argues the intelligence community must admit its "strategic failure" regarding China, likening the current denial to a patient ignoring a cancer diagnosis. He asserts that institutional bias protects the status quo. To counter this, they propose creating a "Team B"—independent analysts outside the CIA's "educated elite"—to provide objective threat assessments, similar to the Cold War approach against the Soviets. Thayer advocates moving CFIUS to the Department of Defense to better protect intellectual property and calls for a "whole of society" response that cuts...

HISTORICAL ECHOES: THE 10-YEAR RULE AND TIANANMEN BLINDNESS Colleagues James Fanell and Bradley Thayer. The authors draw parallels between current US policy and the British Empire's 1919 "10-year rule," which slashed defense spending based on the assumption of peace, leading to unpreparedness for WWII. Fanell recalls his intelligence experience post-Tiananmen Square, noting the US Navy dismissed the PLA Navy threat while myopically focusing on Russia. Thayer criticizes the US response to the 1989 massacre, where the Bush administration rushed to repair relations rather than recognizing the CCP as a "sadistic monster." They argue this failure to perceive the true nature of the...

THE ANACONDA STRATEGY AND THE NEO-ENGAGEMENT TRAP Colleagues James Fanell and Bradley Thayer. Fanell and Thayer discuss the "Joint Sword 2024 Alpha" exercises, describing them as an "Anaconda strategy" where the PRC practices suffocating Taiwan through blockades and missile strikes. Thayer argues that despite these overt threats, Washington remains captured by the "neo-engagement school," mistakenly believing that economic engagement can democratize China. They critique "elite capture" within US institutions, noting that the Bidenadministration has largely continued Obama-era policies rather than confronting the reality that the CCP is transforming international norms rather than being transformed by them. FANELL NUMBER 1
1905 SHANGHAI MIXED...

UNORDERED HEROISM AND THE ULTIMATE BLUFF Colleague Admiral James Stavridis. Stavridis recounts the extraordinary heroism of Dorie Miller, a cook at Pearl Harbor who, despite segregation and lack of training, manned a machine gun and saved his captain without orders. The segment concludes with Commander Ernest Evans of the USS Johnston at Leyte Gulf. Facing a massive Japanese fleet with no support, Evans led a suicidal charge to protect the landing force. This bluff convinced the Japanese that a larger American force must be nearby, causing them to retreat and saving the operation through sheer audacity and the sacrifice of...

EMOTIONAL DETACHMENT AND THE COURAGE TO PIVOT Colleague Admiral James Stavridis. The Admiral emphasizes emotional detachment in leadership, using The Godfather as an analogy for not letting hatred cloud judgment. He critiques Bill Halsey for letting a rivalry with Spruance drive him into a trap at Leyte Gulf. Stavridis also explores the willingness to change plans, illustrating this with Stephen Decatur, who intended to steal the Philadelphiabut burned it when discovered. He reiterates that rational decision-making is vital even when it resembles surrender, as with Lloyd Bucher, challenging "Old Navy" views by asserting there is no shame in surrendering when...

RESOURCE EVALUATION: FROM IRONCLADS TO PANDEMICS Colleague Admiral James Stavridis. Stavridis examines how leaders evaluate resources under pressure. He cites David Farragut at Mobile Bay, who successfully combined Army and Navy assets and adapted to new ironclad technology while ordering "full speed ahead" through mines. In contrast, he defends Commander Lloyd Bucher of the USS Pueblo, who surrendered his spy ship because he had "no resources" to resist and chose to save his crew from suicide. Finally, he praises Captain Brett Crozierfor prioritizing his crew's safety during the COVID-19 outbreak on the USS Theodore Roosevelt, accepting the career cost of...

 INTELLIGENCE AND CALCULATION IN THE CRUCIBLE OF COMMAND Colleague Admiral James Stavridis. Admiral Stavridis discusses leadership lessons from his book To Risk It All. He highlights Admiral George Dewey's victory at Manila Bay, which relied on gathering human intelligence from diplomats in the absence of modern technology. Conversely, he analyzes Admiral Bill Halsey's failure at Leyte Gulf, where poor communication and impulsive decision-making led him to abandon the landing force based on misleading intelligence. Stavridis also profiles Admiral Michelle Howard's calculated risk-taking during the Maersk Alabama rescue, noting her ability to weigh the life-or-death consequences for Captain Phillips without letting c...

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SILENCE Colleague Tanya Branigan. Branigan discusses the psychological aftermath of the Cultural Revolution with professionals in Shanghai, describing the era as a "collective hysteria." She explores the concept of "eating bitterness," or enduring suffering without complaint. While the Cultural Revolution is not strictly banned like the 1989 Tiananmen protests, it remains a sensitive topic met with silence due to both state pressure and personal trauma. Branigan shares an anecdote about a man who hallucinated Red Guards until his death, concluding that memory in China is often fractured by trauma and the struggle to create meaning. TANYA BRANIGAN NUMBER 8<...

A SON'S BETRAYAL Colleague Tanya Branigan. This file recounts the tragic story of Zhang Hongbing, who, as a teenager in 1970, denounced his own mother to the authorities. His mother, Fang Zhongmou, was executed after Zhangand his father reported her for criticizing Mao at home. Decades later, Zhang lives with profound guilt, feeling that his mother "never answers" his attempts to communicate. He took Branigan to his mother's grave, located in a construction site and under threat of removal. The story illustrates how the era's political zealotry destroyed family bonds and left survivors with unmanageable burdens of guilt. TANYA BRANIGAN NUMBER 7<...

IMPERSONATORS AND THE DEATH OF IDEALISM Colleague Tanya Branigan. The conversation highlights the strange phenomenon of historical impersonators, including one of Lin Biao, the general who was Mao's successor before being branded a traitor. Branigan explains that Lin's sudden vilification shattered the idealism of many Red Guards, causing them to question Mao's infallibility. The segment also discusses reunions of "educated youth" sent to the countryside. While many suffered, groups now meet to reminisce, filtering traumatic memories through a "memory bump" of their adolescence, contrasting their past struggles and camaraderie with the perceived moral emptiness of modern China. TANYA BRANIGAN NUMBER 6<...

PRINCELINGS AND POLITICAL NOSTALGIA Colleague Tanya Branigan. Branigan examines "princelings" Bo Xilai and Xi Jinping, children of elite leaders who were victimized during the Cultural Revolution. Xi was exiled to the countryside, while Bo's mother likely died from beatings. Despite this family trauma, Bo later utilized "red culture" nostalgia in Chongqing before his political downfall following a murder scandal. Xi Jinping also draws upon this era's ideology to demand party purity. Branigan suggests this resurgence reflects a public search for meaning amid modern China's materialism, with leaders tapping into nostalgia for a time of perceived clearer beliefs. TANYA BRANIGAN NUMBER 5<...

THE COMPOSER WHO SURVIVED Colleague Tanya Branigan. This segment focuses on Wang Xilin, a composer and former zealous party member whose career was destroyed during the Cultural Revolution. Despite his devotion, he was persecuted, subjected to brutal "struggle sessions," and driven to the brink of suicide. His music went unperformed for 37 years. Branigan describes Wang's intense anger when discussing the era, noting that even his family struggles to understand his trauma. Wang later visited Auschwitz, drawing parallels between the Holocaust and the suffering he and others endured, suggesting that for survivors, the past is never truly gone. TANYA BRANIGAN NUMBER 4<...

TEENAGE ZEALOTS AND THE TRAUMA OF VIOLENCE Colleague Tanya Branigan. Branigan details the memories of Yu Xiangzhen, a former Red Guard who attended Mao's first mass rally in August 1966. Mao encouraged youth to destroy "the four olds," sparking widespread violence against cultural artifacts and people. While traveling the country to spread revolution, Yu witnessed a sports court filled with corpses beaten to death by Red Guards, a memory that remains visceral. Despite such horror, some recall the era with nostalgia, remembering the freedom of free train travel and the intoxication of holding authority over adults during a break from...

THE MURDER OF TEACHER BIAN Colleague Tanya Branigan. The discussion turns to "Red August" 1966 and the murder of vice-principal Bian Zhongyun by her students. Her husband, Wang Jingyao, secretly preserved photographs of her body and her bloodied clothes as a shrine and evidence of the brutality. Branigan discusses Yu Xiangzhen, a former Red Guard who blogged about her regrets until political pressure silenced her. The segment also covers Song Binbin, the elite student who famously placed an armband on Mao; her later apology for her role in the school violence was controversial, with many feeling it failed to fully reckon...

THE FORBIDDEN MUSEUM OF SHANTOU Colleague Tanya Branigan. Tanya Branigan discusses her book, Red Memory, and her visit to the Cultural Revolution Museum in Shantou. Founded by former official Peng Qi'an, this was the only museum in China dedicated to recording the era's violence and chaos. Built in a remote location on a site of mass graves to avoid scrutiny, the museum was eventually suppressed by authorities. Branigan recounts visiting during the Hu Jintao era while being monitored by undercover police. Today, the site is closed, unlike the National Museum, which relegates the decade-long catastrophe to a single "dingy corner."...

THE BATTLE FOR RAFAH AND THE FUTURE OF HAMAS Colleague Seth Frantzman. The discussion focuses on the strategic importance of Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border, identified as the primary artery for Hamas's weapons smuggling. Frantzman argues that Israel must control this border to prevent Hamas from rearming, noting Egypt's failure to secure the area effectively. Regarding Hamas leadership, Frantzman speculates that Yahya Sinwar remains in Khan Yunis, refusing to leave his hometown. While Hamas's organized battalions have been significantly degraded, Frantzman warns that without a comprehensive political strategy, the group could transition back to an insurgency...

THE OCTOPUS STRATEGY: IRAN'S PROXIES AND ISRAEL'S COUNTERATTACK Colleague Seth Frantzman. Frantzman employs the "octopus" metaphor to describe Iran as the central brain directing proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis to encircle Israel. He details Hamas's October 7 strategy: massacre civilians, seize hostages, and retreat to human shields and tunnels to await international pressure on Israel. The conversation outlines the IDF's counter-strategy, which involved cutting Gaza in half via the Netzarim corridor and systematically clearing areas from north to south. Frantzman notes the extensive tunnel network discovered in Khan Yunis, which served as a learning ground for IDF anti-tunnel operations...

ANATOMY OF AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE: ARROGANCE AND TECHNOLOGY Colleague Seth Frantzman. This segment analyzes the catastrophic intelligence failure leading to October 7, attributing it to a mix of complacency, arrogance, and groupthink within Israel's defense establishment. Despite warnings from border observers and Unit 8200 possessing Hamas's attack plans a year in advance, officials dismissed the threat, believing Hamas was deterred and incapable of such an operation. Frantzman highlights a critical over-reliance on technology over human intelligence on the ground. The discussion draws parallels to Pearl Harbor and 9/11, noting that Hamas successfully lured Israel into a false sense of security while training...

THE HORROR OF OCTOBER 7 AND THE ORIGINS OF HAMAS Colleague Seth Frantzman. Seth Frantzmanrecounts his harrowing experience on the evening of October 7, discovering a body on the road to Gaza, symbolizing the chaos of the initial invasion. The conversation shifts to the historical origins of Hamas, founded by Ahmed Yassin during the First Intifada as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Frantzman describes Hamas as evolving from a religious movement into a "terrorist mafia" known for internal brutality and killing collaborators. Key figures like Yahya Sinwarare discussed, noting his release from Israeli prison during the 2011 Gilad Shalit exchange. OCTOBER 7 WAR...

 IRAN'S QUEST FOR SUPREMACY AND FUTURE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS Colleague Brandon Weichert. Weichert discusses Iran's ultimate goal of regional supremacy, describing the regime as the "octopus brain" directing proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. He notes that his book anticipated the proxy attacks that occurred on October 7. Looking forward, Weichert analyzes potential US responses, contrasting the flaws of the original JCPOA—specifically its sunset clauses which would have allowed nuclear weapons by 2025—with a potentially tougher stance under a second Trump term. The segment concludes with the grim warning that the regime may choose destruction over abandoning its nuclear ambit...

SHIFTS IN US POLICY AND THE RISE OF THE SHIA CRESCENT Colleague Brandon Weichert. This section tracks US policy shifts from Clinton's diplomatic attempts to the unintended consequences of the 2003 Iraq War. Weichert argues that removing Saddam Hussein eliminated a check on Iranian power, allowing Tehran to establish a "Shia Crescent" of influence stretching to Lebanon. The conversation covers the deep Sunni-Shia hostility and Iran'sstrategic co-opting of the Palestinian cause to weaken Israel. It also critiques the Obama administration's JCPOA, describing it as a failed attempt to equalize regional power between Iran and Israel, and traces Iran's nuclear ambitions back...

THE HOSTAGE CRISIS, THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR, AND THE CARTER DOCTRINE Colleague Brandon Weichert. Focusing on the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, this segment explores the American hostage crisis and the subsequent Iran-Iraq War initiated by Saddam Hussein in 1980. Hussein attacked to exploit Iran's post-revolutionary chaos and seize the Shatt al-Arab waterway, fearing the spread of radical Islamism. Weichert explains the Carter Doctrine, which committed the US to military intervention to protect Persian Gulf interests, a policy expanded by the "Reagan Corollary." The discussion notes that neither the American public nor the administration fully grasped the deep-seated grievances fueling the Iranian revolution...

US INTERVENTION IN IRAN: FROM OPERATION AJAX TO THE SHAH'S FALL Colleague Brandon Weichert. This segment introduces Brandon Weichert's book, The Shadow War, and examines the history of USinterference in Iran. It details Ambassador William Sullivan's 1978 "Thinking the Unthinkable" memo, which suggested the Carter administration prepare for the Shah's removal as he weakened. The discussion highlights how the USconsidered Ayatollah Khomeini a potential replacement to stabilize Iran, a massive miscalculation. It also revisits the 1953 Operation Ajax, clarifying that pro-Western Iranian military forces, aided by the British and CIA, ousted Prime Minister Mosaddegh after he attempted to consolidate power and nationalize...

THE CHINESE JUDGE AND THE MODERN LEGACY OF THE TRIAL Colleague Professor Gary J. Bass. Judge Mei Ju-ao represented China, striving to center the suffering of Asian peoples in the judgment before returning to a China engulfed by revolution. The trial's legacy remains volatile in modern Asia, exemplified by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, was a suspected Class A war criminal released without trial. Abe and other conservatives scrutinized the tribunal as "victor's justice," symbolized by visits to the Yasukuni Shrine where war criminals are enshrined. This historical grievance continues to strain Japan's relations with China...

DISSENT, EXECUTION, AND THE SHADOW OF IMPERIALISM Colleague Professor Gary J. Bass. Judge Radhabinod Pal of India issued a massive 1,200-page dissent, arguing the tribunal was illegitimate and driven by the racism of colonial powers. Pal viewed Japanese actions as defense against Western encroachment and, controversially, questioned evidence of the Nanjing atrocities. Despite dissents from French, Dutch, and Indian judges, the executions proceeded in December 1948, with Tojo chanting "Banzai" (Long live the Emperor) on the gallows. The US Supreme Court refused to intervene, issuing a narrow ruling that it lacked jurisdiction over an international tribunal, allowing the executions to occur...

CONSPIRACY CHARGES AND THE LEGALITY OF AGGRESSIVE WAR Colleague Professor Gary J. Bass. The prosecution focused on 28 Class A defendants, alleging a grand conspiracy to wage aggressive war. This conspiracy charge, borrowed from Nuremberg, fit awkwardly with the fractured reality of the Japanese government, where defendants were often bitter rivals. To prosecute "aggressive war," the tribunal relied on the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Pact, despite it lacking criminal penalties for signatories. Ultimately, all surviving defendants received convictions, though verdicts were mixed; for example, Shigenori Togo was convicted of aggression but acquitted of conventional war crimes, while Kido was convicted of aggression but not...

THE COLD WAR SHIFT: GEORGE KENNAN'S STRATEGIC PIVOT Colleague Professor Gary J. Bass. By 1948, the trial's context shifted dramatically with the onset of the Cold War and the Chinese Civil War. George Kennan, the architect of containment, visited Tokyo to convince MacArthur that democratization was less important than establishing Japan as a strong anti-communist bulwark against the Soviets. Kennan argued that the US must secure Japan as a strategic prize rather than focus on China, which was falling to Mao. This "reverse course" prioritized stability and industrial strength over the initial progressive reforms, viewing Japan as the essential anchor...

A FLAWED TRIBUNAL: INCOMPETENT PROSECUTORS AND CRANKY JUDGES Colleague Professor Gary J. Bass. The tribunal, involving nine Allied nations, suffered from personnel issues driven by President Truman'scronyism. Unlike the selection of Robert Jackson for Nuremberg, Truman appointed Joseph Keenan, an undistinguished and alcoholic figure, as chief prosecutor. Keenan was intellectually outclassed by the international judges and failed to match the gravity of the proceedings. The trial, spanning two and a half years and 50,000 pages of transcripts, was presided over by the Australian Sir William Webb. Webb's abrasive management style and "crankiness" alienated his colleagues and favored the prosecution, undermining the...

ARRESTING THE CABINET AND DEFINING CLASS A CRIMES Colleague Professor Gary J. Bass. As MacArthur's occupation forces arrived in a ruined Tokyo, they began arresting suspects, including former Prime Minister Tojo Hideki, who botched a suicide attempt. The upcoming International Military Tribunal for the Far Eastcategorized offenses into Class A (aggressive war), Class B (conventional war crimes), and Class C (crimes against humanity). Prosecutors utilized the discovered diary of Kido Koichi, the Emperor's advisor, to map decision-making, though the Emperor himself remained untouched. Notably, while General Matsui was charged for the Nanjing Massacre, the Emperor's uncle, Prince Asaka, who was...

THE EMPEROR'S IMMUNITY AND MACARTHUR'S SWIFT JUSTICE Colleague Professor Gary J. Bass. Following the surrender on the USS Missouri, General Douglas MacArthur faced the challenge of implementing the Potsdam Declaration's call for justice. A political decision was made to shield Emperor Hirohito from prosecution to utilize his authority for disarming troops and legitimizing the occupation, despite his complicity in the war effort. Conversely, MacArthur pursued swift, vengeful justice against his personal enemies, Generals Homma and Yamashita. Ignoring standard military court procedures, MacArthur established a precedent for the coming trials by rushing their convictions and executions for atrocities in the Philippines...

TRUMAN INHERITS A WORLD WAR AND THE BURDEN OF JUDGMENT Colleague Professor Gary J. Bass. Following the sudden death of Franklin D. Roosevelt in April 1945, Harry Truman assumed the presidency with little preparation regarding foreign policy or the situation in Asia. While Truman possessed combat experience from World War I, his understanding of China and Japan relied heavily on stereotypes and idealism rather than briefing. Confronted immediately with the bloody Battle of Okinawa and the devastation of the firebombing of Tokyo, Truman upheld the Allies' demand for unconditional surrender. This policy necessitated stripping Japan of its empire and trying...

SOCCER STADIUMS AS PROTEST VENUES AND THE ETHNIC FACTOR Colleague Brenda Shaffer. Shafferdescribes how soccer stadiums, particularly for the Azerbaijani team "Tractor," have become venues for ethnic and anti-regime protest. She notes the regime's brutal crackdown on athletes supporting the movement. Shaffer observes a shift in the opposition from seeking reform to demanding total regime change. She predicts the ethnic factor will be decisive in the Islamic Republic's potential collapse, warning that a transition to a Persian-nationalist military dictatorship would further alienate minority populations. NUMBER 4
1940 TEHRAN

BROKEN PROMISES AND LINGUISTIC DISCRIMINATION Colleague Brenda Shaffer. Shaffer details how the Islamic Republic initially promised ethnic minorities linguistic and cultural rights to secure power in 1979, only to violently suppress them once established. She explains that this oppression continues today through the policing of non-Persian names on birth certificates and the banning of minority language education. Shaffer argues this linguistic discrimination fuels current unrest, exemplified by Mahsa Amini, whose Kurdish identity was suppressed by state mandates. NUMBER 2
1911 QAJAR IN URMIA

BROKEN PROMISES AND LINGUISTIC DISCRIMINATION Colleague Brenda Shaffer. Shaffer details how the Islamic Republic initially promised ethnic minorities linguistic and cultural rights to secure power in 1979, only to violently suppress them once established. She explains that this oppression continues today through the policing of non-Persian names on birth certificates and the banning of minority language education. Shaffer argues this linguistic discrimination fuels current unrest, exemplified by Mahsa Amini, whose Kurdish identity was suppressed by state mandates. NUMBER 2
1870 TEHRAN

IRAN IS MORE THAN PERSIA: A DIVERSE MOSAIC OF ETHNIC MINORITIES Colleague Brenda Shaffer. Brenda Shaffer discusses her book, Iran is More than Persia, arguing that Iran is not a monolithic Persian state but a diverse mosaic where ethnic minorities comprise roughly half the population. She explains how the 20th-century shift to Persian nationalism marginalized groups like the Azerbaijanis, Kurds, and Baluch. Shaffer notes that current anti-regime protests involve these previously pacified groups, highlighting the regime's failure to fully subjugate peripheral regions like Sistan-Baluchistan. NUMBER 1
1890 TEHRAN

 THE SAM ALTMAN MELODRAMA Colleague Gary Rivlin. The shock firing of Sam Altman by the OpenAI board over trust issues, Microsoft's intervention, and the rapid rehiring that solidified the race for dominance. NUMBER 16
1955

THE DILEMMA OF BIGNESS Colleague Gary Rivlin. How corporate giants like Google were slowed by their own business models, leading Suleyman to leave for Inflection and eventually Microsoft to bypass startup funding issues. NUMBER 15

DOOMERS VS. ACCELERATIONISTS Colleague Gary Rivlin. The ideological battle between "accelerationists" who want rapid progress and "doomers" who fear existential risk, with Hoffman positioning himself as a "bloomer." NUMBER 14
1959

TRANSFORMERS AND OPENAI Colleague Gary Rivlin. The development of the "transformer" paper at Google, the rise of large language models like GPT, and OpenAI's pivot from non-profit to a Microsoft-backed entity. NUMBER 13
1950

DEEPMIND AND THE GOOGLE ACQUISITION Colleague Gary Rivlin. Mustafa Suleyman and Demis Hassabisfounding DeepMind to master games, their sale to Google for $650 million, and the culture clash that followed. NUMBER 12
1952

THE AI WINTER Colleague Gary Rivlin. The history of Frank Rosenblatt's neural networks, their dismissal by Marvin Minsky in favor of rules-based computing, and the decades-long "winter" before the resurgence of machine learning. NUMBER 11

THE CONNECTOR Colleague Gary Rivlin. Reid Hoffman's journey from a lonely childhood to becoming a Silicon Valley "super-connector," his relationship with Peter Thiel, and his early recognition of AI's potential. NUMBER 10
1955

AI VALLEY: THE TRILLION DOLLAR RACE TO CASH IN Colleague Gary Rivlin. Gary Rivlin chronicles the personalities driving the AI revolution, including Reid Hoffman and Mustafa Suleyman. He explores the history of "AI winters," the rise of neural networks, and the corporate battle between Google and Microsoft. The narrative covers the "Doomer" safety debates and Sam Altman's dramatic firing. NUMBER 9
1931

THE MACHINERY OF REPRESSION Colleague Nilo Tabrizy. The structure of the IRGC and Basij, the specific targeting of ethnic minorities like Kurds and Baluchis, and the state's sadistic use of violence against mourners. NUMBER 8
1906 TEHRAN. HEADS OF TURCOMAN CHIEFS

ROOTS OF THE REVOLUTION Colleague Nilo Tabrizy. The historical context of the 1953 coup against Mossadegh, the alienation of the Pahlavi dynasty, and the recurring cycle of foreign interference and internal authoritarianism. NUMBER 7
1902 PERSIA

THE DEATH OF GINA Colleague Nilo Tabrizy. The killing of Mahsa Jina Amini by the morality police for her hair, the Kurdish origins of "Woman, Life, Freedom," and the immediate eruption of protests. NUMBER 6
1832 PERSIAN GIRL

WOMAN, LIFE, FREEDOM: THE STORY OF IRAN'S UPRISING Colleague Nilo Tabrizy. Nilo Tabrizy and co-author Fatima Jamalapur document the uprising sparked by the death of Mahsa Jina Amini in police custody. They trace the regime's brutality back to the 1953 coup and the 1979 revolution. The discussion highlights the repression of minorities and defiant activism within Evin Prison. NUMBER 5
1850 KHALIFA SULTAN, ABBAS II

ANTISEMITISM IN THE ACADEMY Colleague Josh Hammer. A hostile incident at Loyola University Chicagolaw school where protesters disrupted a debate on presidential immunity, and the link between anti-Zionism and the eradication of Western civilization. NUMBER 4
842 JOSEPHUS

FROM TREBLINKA TO KFAR AZA Colleague Josh Hammer. A visit to the Nazi death camp Treblinka contrasted with the aftermath of the October 7 massacre at Kibbutz Kfar Aza, and finding solace in faith and the Golden Rule. NUMBER 3
1860 JERUSALEM

WESTCHESTER AND THE AMERICANIZATION OF JUDAISM Colleague Josh Hammer. Growing up in a secular Jewish environment, dropping out of Hebrew school, and the later discovery of conservatism and Edmund Burke leading to religious observance. NUMBER 2
1936 RAMALLAH

THE FATE OF THE JEWISH NATION AND THE DESTINY OF THE WEST Colleague Josh Hammer. Josh Hammer discusses his journey from a secular upbringing to Orthodox Judaism and his new book regarding Westerncivilization. He contrasts the Holocaust site Treblinka with the October 7 massacre at Kfar Aza. Hammer also details violent campus antisemitism, arguing it targets the foundations of the West. NUMBER 1
1857 CROSSING THE RED SEA

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY AI VALLEY: THE EARLY HISTORY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEColleague Gary Rivlin. Author Gary Rivlin reviews the early history of artificial intelligence in his book AI Valley. He details how 1950s pioneers faced mockery because computers lacked the power and digital data necessary for neural networks, resulting in a fifty-year delay before technology caught up to the concept.

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY PI: THE POLITE CHATBOT DESIGNED FOR EMPATHY Colleague Gary Rivlin. Gary Rivlin examines the creation of "Pi," a chatbot designed by personality engineers to exhibit good manners and empathy. Rivlin explains how humans fine-tuned the bot to be polite, predicting a future where such AI could serve affordable therapeutic roles or even function as romantic partners.
1955

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY AI WINTERS: WHEN FUNDING VANISHED Colleague Gary Rivlin. Gary Rivlin explains the history of "AI winters" in the 20th century, periods when funding vanished due to overhyped expectations. He describes how optimism in the 1970s and 1980s regarding expert systems eventually collapsed, turning AI into a "dirty word" for investors until its recent resurgence.
1964

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY ISRAEL AND CIVILIZATION: ANTI-WESTERN SENTIMENT ON CAMPUSColleague Josh Hammer. Columnist Josh Hammer discusses his book Israel and Civilization, arguing that anti-Israelprotests at universities like George Washington University are proxies for anti-Western sentiment. Hammer suggests these activists view Israel as a "little Satan" representing Western nation-states, aiming to dismantle Westerncivilization alongside the Jewish state.
1842 MASADA

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY IRAN'S DIVERSE ETHNIC MAKEUP Colleague Nilo Tabrizy. Journalist Nilo Tabrizy, co-author of For the Sun After Long Nights, discusses the diverse ethnic makeup of Iran. She explains how moving to Tehran from the provinces feels like immigration for many minorities, who must assimilate and blend their distinct languages and cultures within the capital city.
1870 PERSIA

SHOW
1-8-2026
THE SHOW BEGINS IN DOUBTS ABOUT THE SARCASTIC INVENTION, THE DON-ROE DOCTRINE.  

SPHERES OF INFLUENCE AND THE RETURN OF THE MONROE DOCTRINE Colleague Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Anatol Lieven argues that "spheres of influence" have returned, with the US reasserting the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and threatening to seize Greenland. Unlike traditional alliances, this approach risks alienating fellow democracies. Lieven contrasts this with Russia's territorial ambitions in the former Soviet Union and China's historic regional goals. NUMBER 1

COLD WAR TACTICS: THE SEIZURE OF A RUSSIAN T...

 ARTEMIS 2 RISKS AND THE SEARCH FOR LIFE IN SPACE Colleague Bob Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com. Bob Zimmerman urges NASA to fly Artemis 2 unmanned due to unresolved Orion heat shield damage, arguing safety should trump beating China. He also dismisses concerns about lunar methane contamination and highlights a new study suggesting ice caps could allow liquid water lakes to exist on Mars. NUMBER 16

1953

EUROPEAN FREEZE AND THE MYTH OF BOOTS ON THE GROUND Colleague Simon Constable, Journalist and Author. A deep freeze hits Southern Europe while commodity prices like copper rise. Simon Constable reports on the UK's bleak economic mood and dismisses the feasibility of British or French "boots on the ground" in Ukraine. He notes that depleted military manpower makes such guarantees declarative rather than substantial. NUMBER 15
1918 UKRAINE

RUSSIA'S OIL CRISIS AND REGIONAL DEFICITS Colleague Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution. Russiafaces a financial crisis as oil prices drop below $60 per barrel. Michael Bernstam explains that increased global supply forces Russia to sell at deep discounts to China and India, often below cost. This revenue loss prevents the Kremlinfrom paying soldiers, sparking severe regional budget deficits. NUMBER 14
1906 BAKU

VENEZUELA: THE REGIME SURVIVES MADURO'S EXIT Colleague Mary Anastasia O'Grady, Wall Street Journal. Despite Maduro's removal, the Venezuelan regime remains intact under hardliners Delcy Rodriguez and Diosdado Cabello. Mary Anastasia O'Grady notes that repression continues, and European oil companies are hesitant to invest. The regime feigns cooperation to avoid US intervention, but genuine recovery is impossible without restoring the rule of law. NUMBER 13
1930

1204: THE SACK OF CONSTANTINOPLE AND THE END OF CONTINUITY Colleague Professor Ed Watts, Author of The Romans. The Fourth Crusade, diverted by Venetian debt, sacked Constantinople in 1204, burning the city to quell resistance. Watts argues this marked the true end of the ancient Roman state. The meritocratic system collapsed, and elites like Nicetas Choniates lost everything, severing the 2,000-year political continuity of the empire. NUMBER 12
1661

THE CRUSADES: FROM COOPERATION TO CONFLICT Colleague Professor Ed Watts, Author of The Romans. Relations between East and West collapsed during the Crusades. While the First Crusade cooperated with Rome, the Second and Third turned hostile, with Crusaders seizing territory rather than returning it. Watts notes that the theological schism of 1054 and cultural distrust entrenched this division, setting the stage for future betrayal. NUMBER 11
1600 FALL

THE STUPIDITY OF SUCCESSORS: MANUEL AND ANDRONICUS Colleague Professor Ed Watts, Author of The Romans. Manuel Komnenos favored grand gestures over systemic stability, weakening the Roman state. His successor, Andronicus, was a nihilistic sadist whose tyranny and family infighting destabilized the empire. Watts details how the refusal to punish rebellious family members created a culture of impunity that eventually led to a violent overthrow. NUMBER 10
1572

THE SIEGE OF 717 AND THE VOLCANO OF THERA Colleague Professor Ed Watts, Author of The Romans. In 717 AD, Arab forces besieged Constantinople but failed due to the city's massive walls and "Greek fire." Professor Watts explains that a subsequent volcanic eruption in Thera was interpreted as divine punishment for the empire's sins, leading to a spiritual crisis and the rise of iconoclasm to appease God. NUMBER 9
1680 CONSTANTINOPLE

THE NUCLEAR ESCROW: MANAGING PROLIFERATION AMONG ALLIES Colleague Henry Sokolski, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Henry Sokolski warns that allies like Poland, Turkey, and South Africaare considering nuclear weapons due to eroding trust in US guarantees. He proposes a "nuclear escrow" account: storing refurbished warheads in the US for allies to deploy only during crises, providing leverage without permanently stationing targets on foreign soil. NUMBER 8
1945 TRINITY

LANCASTER COUNTY: AMISH SPENDING AND DATA CENTER GROWTH Colleague Jim McTague, Author and Former Barron's Editor. Jim McTague reports that the Lancaster County economy remains robust, evidenced by heavy Amish spending at Costco and thriving local businesses like Kegel's Produce. Despite some local protests, data centers are being built on old industrial sites. McTague sees no need for Fed rate cuts given the stable local economy. NUMBER 7
1941 LANCASTER

#SCALAREPORT: AI AND ROBOTICS DOMINATE CES Colleague Chris Riegel, CEO of Scala.com. Reporting from CES, Chris Riegel highlights the dominance of AI and robotics, from household droids to military applications. While the tech sector booms with massive infrastructure spending, Riegel warns of a "K-shaped" economy where Main Street struggles with softening demand, masking the wealth concentrated in artificial intelligence and data centers. NUMBER 6
1953

ONE YEAR LATER: ANGER AND STAGNATION AFTER THE PALISADES FIRE Colleague Jeff Bliss, Pacific Watch. A year after the Palisades fires, Jeff Bliss reports that residents remain angry over government inaction. Rebuilding is stalled by the Coastal Commission's strict regulations, and fuel loads in canyons remain high due to environmental restrictions on brush clearing. The fires, driven by Santa Ana winds, highlight systemic bureaucratic failures in Los Angeles. NUMBER 5
1940 PACIFIC PALISADES

THE SUPREME COURT AND THE MYTH OF THE UNITARY EXECUTIVE Colleague Richard Epstein, Civitas Institute. Richard Epstein challenges the view that the Roberts Court blindly supports a "unitary executive." He argues the Court is correctly questioning the constitutionality of independent administrative agencies, like the FTC, which insulate officials from presidential removal. Epstein contends that relying on case counts ignores the specific legal merits regarding separation of powers. NUMBER 3
1890 FULLER SCOTUS

THE SUPREME COURT AND THE MYTH OF THE UNITARY EXECUTIVE Colleague Richard Epstein, Civitas Institute. Richard Epstein challenges the view that the Roberts Court blindly supports a "unitary executive." He argues the Court is correctly questioning the constitutionality of independent administrative agencies, like the FTC, which insulate officials from presidential removal. Epstein contends that relying on case counts ignores the specific legal merits regarding separation of powers. NUMBER 3
1924 SCOTUS HUGHES COURT

COLD WAR TACTICS: THE SEIZURE OF A RUSSIAN TANKER Colleague Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Lieven discusses the US Navy's detention of a Russian-flagged ship in the North Atlantic, viewing it as a dangerous escalation akin to piracy. This move humiliates Moscow and aims to control oil supplies. Lieven warns that if European nations mimic these seizures, Russia may retaliate violently, risking a direct war. NUMBER 2
1962 CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS

SPHERES OF INFLUENCE AND THE RETURN OF THE MONROE DOCTRINE Colleague Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Anatol Lieven argues that "spheres of influence" have returned, with the US reasserting the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and threatening to seize Greenland. Unlike traditional alliances, this approach risks alienating fellow democracies. Lieven contrasts this with Russia's territorial ambitions in the former Soviet Union and China's historic regional goals. NUMBER 1
1893 GREENLAND

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY REGULATORY HURDLES AND HIGH WINDS FUEL PALISADES FIREColleague Jeff Bliss, Pacific Watch. Jeff Bliss reports on the January 2025 Pacific Palisades fire, allegedly ignited by an arsonist and exacerbated by Santa Ana winds. Bliss notes that state regulations protecting a specific plant prevented fire crews from bulldozing underbrush, allowing embers to reignite and causing the catastrophe to rapidly expand.
1919 PACIFIC PALISADES

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY CULTURE CLASH: MODERN TRAFFIC VS. AMISH BUGGIES Colleague Jim McTague. Jim McTague details the dangerous friction between Amish horse-drawn buggies and automobiles in Lancaster County. With over 30 collisions in 2024 and a recent fatality, McTague attributes the tragedy to impatient motorists who drive carelessly around the buggies, creating a sad and often deadly situation.
1941 LANCASTER COUNTY

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY CES HIGHLIGHTS THE MARRIAGE OF AI AND ROBOTICS Colleague Chris Riegel, Scalar.com. Reporting from the Consumer Electronics Show, Chris Riegel highlights the dominance of robots, ranging from domestic helpers to advanced machines for firefighting. He observes a "progressive marriage" between Artificial Intelligence and robotics, predicting these advancements will significantly alter the execution of dangerous or repetitive tasks.
1941

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY TURKEY'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS AND IMPERIAL NOSTALGIA Colleague Henry Sokolski, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Henry Sokolski explains that Turkey desires a nuclear weapon to assert agency and revive the influence of the Ottoman Empire, despite NATO protection. President Erdoganargues it is unfair for neighbors like Israel to possess nuclear capabilities while Turkey cannot, viewing weapons as a path to respect.
1951 RB-36

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY EMPEROR MANUEL: CHARISMA WITHOUT SUSTAINABILITY Colleague Professor Ed Watts, Author of The Romans. Professor Ed Watts critiques Emperor Manuel, a 12th-century ruler who prioritized grand gestures, such as jousting, over strategic governance. Although Manuel's conquests looked impressive, his failure to create sustainable systems left the empire superficially powerful but institutionally weak, unlike successful Roman predecessors.
457 AMBROSIAN ILLIAD

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY ICE CAPS MAY SHIELD LIQUID LAKES ON MARS Colleague Bob Zimmerman. Bob Zimmerman reviews a new computer model suggesting that liquid water lakes could survive on Mars if protected by a cap of ice. While surface water usually sublimates in the thin atmosphere, this ice barrier might explain the existence of Martian geological water features.
1917

Guest: Professor Edward J. Watts. Heraclius defeated the Persian Empire only to lose the Middle East to rising Arab forces, devastating Rome's food and financial supplies. Facing famine and new barbarian threats like the Avars, Romans interpreted these disasters as divine punishment, leading to the religious policy of Iconoclasm to appease God.

Guest: Professor Edward J. Watts. The Nika riots, sparked by chariot racing factions, nearly toppled Emperor Justinian until Empress Theodora convinced him to stay. After crushing the rebellion, Justinian built the Hagia Sophiato symbolize repentance and divine connection. He also launched costly military campaigns to retake Italy and North Africa.

Guest: Professor Edward J. Watts. Following Julian's failed attempt to restore paganism, Theodosius embraced Christianity and suppressed traditional Roman religion. Simultaneously, the mishandling of Gothic refugees fleeing the Huns led to rebellion. After the Roman leadership refused to negotiate extortion payments, Alaric the Goth sacked the city of Rome in anger.

Guest: Professor Edward J. Watts. Emperor Diocletian reorganized the empire's administration and persecuted Christians to protect his new system. Following Diocletian's retirement, Constantine seized power through civil war, attributing his military victory to a Christian vision. Constantine subsequently established Constantinople as a new, grand capital to rival Rome.

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Latin America is seeing a shift away from leftist "Pink Tide" governments toward pro-U.S. administrations in countries like Argentina and Paraguay due to failures in addressing security and corruption. Despite this political shift, China continues to ensure repayment of its loans, even from struggling regimes like Venezuela.

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Events in Caracas are shaping upcoming elections in Brazil and Colombia, pushing leaders like Lula toward moderation to appease centrist voters. In Colombia, frustration with President Petro's policies and security failures may favor right-wing candidates. Meanwhile, Peru's election focuses on public insecurity and deep Chinese investment.

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Havana is in panic as the loss of Venezuelan oil threatens to break the country's petroleum-fired power infrastructure. With the currency in freefall and massive blackouts, the regime hopes to muddle through despite enormous suffering, while Washington's rhetoric signals that external pressure will continue.

1959 HAVANA

Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Venezuela's oil industry has collapsed due to the firing of professionals and lack of maintenance, leaving infrastructure dangerous and unable to process heavy crude. With storage at capacity, the U.S. is using "coercive diplomacy" to manage oil flows while legal disputes hamper future investment.

1904 CARACAS

Guest: Brandon Weichert. Chinese tech giant Baidu is developing high-end chips to boost its market valuation. However, the Chinese state drives this "chip war" for military control and resilience rather than profitability. Despite some puffery regarding capabilities, China is serious about creating indigenous alternatives to American technology.

1954

Guest: Alan Tonelson. China's leadership is likely stunned by setbacks with allies in Venezuela and Iran. While Chinarelies on coal, the loss of cheap oil imports will squeeze its industry. Furthermore, China's strategy of exporting its way out of trouble faces backlash from foreign markets protecting their own manufacturers.

1945 OCTOBER 10

Guest: Rebecca Grant. The Arctic has become a battleground where Russia and China are increasing military cooperation, including bomber flights and naval exercises. The U.S. needs to expand its fleet of icebreakers and sensors to counter threats, such as Chinese ballistic missile submarines potentially operating under the ice.

1904 Greenland

Guest: Steve Yates. China expects repayment for its loans to Venezuela, but the U.S. "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" aims to cut adversaries out of the hemisphere. By blocking oil shipments, the U.S. leverages economic power to disrupt China'ssupply chains, potentially forcing Beijing to rethink its global energy strategy.

1932 Shanghai

Guest: General Blaine Holt. The operation in Caracas revealed that Chinese-made air defense systems failed to detect U.S. aircraft. Electronic warfare capabilities and stealth technology likely blinded radars, rendering Russian missile systems useless. This success signals a crackdown on illicit networks, alerting regional leaders to U.S. resolve.

Guest: General Blaine Holt. The U.S. seized a Russian-flagged vessel, the "Bella 1," in the Atlantic, prompting a Russian submarine to track the operation. This Cold War-style confrontation highlights the risks of miscalculation as Washington enforces an energy quarantine against Venezuela, targeting shadow fleet vessels involved in illicit activities.

Guest: Behnam Ben Taleblu. Reports of the Ayatollah planning to flee are likely inaccurate; the regime's ideology drives it to fight rather than seek exile. Despite economic strain, Tehran continues funding proxies like Hezbollah to maintain its transnational terrorist apparatus. The regime also seeks to exploit chaos in Syria to reassert influence.

Guest: Behnam Ben Taleblu. The Iranian regime faces a critical mass of dissatisfaction, responding with violence against protesters and hospitals rather than addressing grievances. Inflation for food has reached nearly 73 percent, and medical security is nonexistent. Unlike in 2009, opposition is rallying around figures like Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.